Australia’s population is projected to increase by another 1.4 million people over the next four years, according to updated Treasury Budget papers released by the Federal Government.
The revised forecasts show that net overseas migration will remain significantly higher than previously expected, highlighting the continued importance of migration in supporting Australia’s economy, workforce, and long-term infrastructure goals.
The updated projections are expected to influence discussions around skilled migration, housing demand, labour shortages, and economic growth across the country.
Australia’s Population Expected to Reach 29.4 Million
According to the latest Treasury forecasts, Australia’s population is expected to rise from approximately 28 million people to 29.4 million by 2029–30.
This population growth will largely be driven by overseas migration, which continues to play a major role in:
· filling workforce shortages
· supporting economic productivity
· strengthening regional development
· addressing skill gaps in critical industries
The revised figures confirm that Australia remains heavily reliant on migration to sustain long-term economic growth
Net Overseas Migration Forecast Revised Upwards
One of the biggest changes in the Budget papers is the increase in net overseas migration forecasts.
2025–26 Migration Forecast
Net overseas migration for 2025–26 is now projected at:
· 295,000 people
This is significantly higher than the earlier estimate of:
· 260,000 people
2026–27 Migration Forecast
Migration for 2026–27 is forecast to reach:
· 245,000 people
The revised figures indicate that Australia is expected to continue attracting large numbers of migrants, international students, skilled workers, and temporary visa holders over the coming years
Skilled Migration Remains a Major Priority
The Federal Government has confirmed that the Permanent Migration Program will remain at:
· 185,000 places for 2026–27
Most of these places will continue to focus on skilled migration pathways.
The Government says migration is essential to help address ongoing workforce shortages across several industries, including:
· healthcare
· aged care
· engineering
· information technology
· construction
· infrastructure development
· education
· regional industries
Australia continues facing labour shortages in many sectors, particularly in regional areas and major infrastructure projects.
Australia Targeting Younger and Highly Skilled Migrants
The Budget papers also reveal that Australia plans to attract:
· younger migrants
· highly educated professionals
· skilled workers
· overseas tradies
· construction workers
This strategy aligns with the Government’s broader focus on improving workforce participation, productivity, and long-term economic sustainability.
Younger skilled migrants are often viewed positively because they:
· contribute to the workforce for longer periods
· help support the tax system
· reduce ageing population pressures
· strengthen economic growth
Construction workers and tradies are also expected to play an important role in helping Australia deliver housing and infrastructure projects nationwide.
State-by-State Population Growth Forecasts
The latest projections show population growth across all Australian states and territories over the next four years.
Victoria
Victoria is expected to receive the largest increase, with:
· 405,000 new residents
New South Wales
New South Wales is projected to add:
· 365,000 new residents
Queensland
Queensland is forecast to gain:
· 314,000 new residents
Western Australia
Western Australia is expected to grow by:
· 184,000 new residents
South Australia
South Australia is forecast to add:
· 50,000 new residents
Northern Territory
The Northern Territory is expected to gain:
· 8,000 new residents
Tasmania
Tasmania is also projected to receive:
· 8,000 new residents
These projections highlight the continuing concentration of migration and population growth in Australia’s major states and metropolitan regions.
Migration Continues to Drive Economic Growth
The Government says migration remains critical for maintaining Australia’s economic performance.
Key benefits identified include:
· supporting labour market demand
· boosting consumer spending
· increasing tax revenue
· improving productivity
· helping businesses fill vacancies
· supporting major infrastructure delivery
Many industries continue struggling to recruit enough local workers, making overseas migration an important part of workforce planning.
Housing and Cost of Living Concerns Continue
Despite the economic benefits, the increase in migration is also expected to intensify national discussions around:
· housing affordability
· rental shortages
· infrastructure pressure
· transport congestion
· rising living costs
Australia’s rental market remains under significant pressure, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth.
Some experts argue that stronger housing supply measures will be necessary to accommodate future population growth.
The Government has stated that skilled migration and housing construction initiatives must work together to support sustainable growth.
Impact on International Students and Skilled Workers
The revised migration forecasts are likely to create continued opportunities for:
· international students
· skilled migrants
· employer-sponsored applicants
· regional visa applicants
· construction and healthcare workers
Australia remains one of the world’s most popular migration destinations due to:
· strong employment opportunities
· high quality of life
· permanent residency pathways
· world-class education system
Skilled migrants in occupations experiencing shortages may continue benefiting from strong demand across multiple visa categories.
Final Thoughts
Australia’s updated Treasury forecasts confirm that migration will remain a central part of the country’s economic and population strategy over the coming years.
With an additional 1.4 million people expected by 2029–30, skilled migration is set to continue shaping Australia’s workforce, infrastructure development, and long-term economic future.
At the same time, policymakers will face growing pressure to address housing supply, affordability, and infrastructure challenges as population growth accelerates.
For migrants, international students, and skilled workers, the latest forecasts reinforce Australia’s continued focus on attracting talented people to support national growth and workforce demand.